Glen Anderson’s Insights on Private Market Trends: The Rise of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX

Glen Anderson has been involved in brokering trades for private company shares since 2010, a time when the institutional investors interested in late-stage private markets were limited. Today, he observes that the landscape has transformed, with thousands of institutional investors now engaged.

As the president of Rainmaker Securities, an investment bank that specializes exclusively in private securities markets, Anderson finds himself at the center of a significant moment in the history of the secondary market. He identifies three pivotal players in this evolving narrative: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX.

The Changing Dynamics of Demand

Anderson’s analysis of Anthropic aligns with recent reports from Bloomberg, highlighting an overwhelming demand for the company’s shares. Ken Smythe, CEO of Next Round Capital, noted that investors have expressed readiness to invest $2 billion in Anthropic, while around $600 million worth of OpenAI shares struggle to find buyers.

For Anderson, the scarcity of Anthropic shares in the market illustrates this demand. “The hardest stock to source in our marketplace is Anthropic,” he stated from his Miami home. “There’s just no sellers.”

One factor propelling this demand is Anthropic’s highly publicized conflict with the Department of Defense. Initially perceived as a setback, Anderson believes this confrontation has fueled Anthropic’s popularity, as investors rally around the company—which now stands out as a ‘hero’ challenging governmental authority. This has effectively differentiated Anthropic from OpenAI.

Navigating Investor Sentiment

This distinction is increasingly significant for investors who have historically adopted a “bet on everyone” strategy. According to Anderson, many institutional investors still seek exposure to both Anthropic and OpenAI, expressing uncertainty over which company will ultimately prevail in the AI space. However, he notes a clear momentum shift in the secondary market favoring Anthropic.

While he emphasizes that OpenAI isn’t in decline, Anderson cautions against a binary view of the situation. He observes, “I wouldn’t say it’s a one-or-the-other conversation,” yet admits, “It’s not nearly as vibrant a market as Anthropic right now.”

The Valuation Landscape

Regarding valuations, Anderson confirms Bloomberg’s reports that OpenAI shares on the secondary market are trading at a valuation of approximately $765 billion—well below its recent primary-round valuation of $852 billion. While he acknowledges he’s speaking from memory, he reassures that the Bloomberg figure is “in the right range.”

OpenAI is actively working to control its secondary trading narrative. An OpenAI spokesperson advised caution about firms claiming to provide access to their equity, emphasizing that they’ve implemented authorized banking channels to circumvent the high-fee models often associated with brokers.

Interestingly, banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have begun to offer OpenAI shares to their wealthy clients without charging carry fees. In contrast, Goldman is reportedly applying its standard 15% to 20% carry fees for clients interested in acquiring Anthropic shares.

SpaceX: A Unique Position in the Market

Distinct from both Anthropic and OpenAI is SpaceX, which seems to defy market volatility. Anderson describes it as one of the few entities in Rainmaker’s portfolio that has remained untouched by the corrections that afflicted much of the private market between 2022 and 2024, a period during which many private company shares plummeted by 60% to 70%.

Anderson attributes SpaceX’s growing valuation—characterized by consistent upward movement—to its management’s disciplined pricing approach. Unlike other companies tempted to maximize stock prices at every funding round, SpaceX has chosen to play it conservatively, creating substantial returns for early investors.

A poignant example he noted was when SpaceX was valued at around $12 billion in 2015 when Google and Fidelity jointly invested $1 billion. Those who invested at that time are now seeing over 100x returns, with the company’s current valuation exceeding $1 trillion as it prepares for its imminent IPO.

The Imminent IPO of SpaceX

SpaceX has confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO), setting the stage for what could be among the largest market debuts in history. Reports suggest that Elon Musk aims to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, possibly as soon as June. Only the 2019 debut of Saudi Aramco, which valued the energy giant at $1.7 trillion, has come close to such magnitude.

This impending IPO has already altered the dynamics for SpaceX shares in the secondary market. Anderson reports seeing a surge of interest from SpaceX investors reaching out to him for acquisition opportunities. However, as the IPO approaches, shares are becoming scarce, with existing shareholders less inclined to sell as they anticipate the upcoming liquidity event.

Implications for OpenAI and Anthropic

The demand dynamics created by SpaceX’s IPO filing complicate prospects for both OpenAI and Anthropic, which are also exploring public offerings. Given that SpaceX will likely set the tone for investor enthusiasm, those that follow may find themselves at a disadvantage.

Anderson succinctly summarizes the situation: “SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity.” There’s only so much capital available for IPO investments; early movers benefit from the initial capital infusion, while latecomers may encounter heightened scrutiny and reduced funding availability.

This competitive dynamic is not limited to the tech sector but plays out across various verticals, with AI companies also susceptible to fluctuating investor sentiment. Timing an IPO too early risks gauging market receptivity, while waiting may mean encountering a capital environment already saturated by earlier entrants.

Conclusion

Anderson’s insights reveal a complex landscape for private equity trading, shaped significantly by key players like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. As investor interest shifts and IPOs loom, the secondary market will likely continue to evolve, with early movers standing to gain the most in an ever-more competitive environment. For those looking to stay updated on these developments, Anderson’s insights will be featured in the forthcoming episode of the StrictlyVC Download podcast, airing every Tuesday.

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Emmanuel Kesse

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