Leaked Documents Reveal OpenAI’s Payments to Microsoft
Should AI do everything? OpenAI thinks so
Intensifying Financial Scrutiny of OpenAI Amid IPO Buzz
In the wake of heightened dealmaking and ongoing speculation surrounding a potential IPO, OpenAI is facing increased financial scrutiny. Recent leaks from tech blogger Ed Zitron have shed light on the company’s financial performance, particularly its revenue and compute expenses over recent years.
Revenue Sharing with Microsoft
According to Zitron’s report, Microsoft received $493.8 million in revenue share payments from OpenAI in 2024. This amount surged to $865.8 million during the first three quarters of 2025, as indicated by the documents he accessed. OpenAI is believed to share approximately 20% of its revenue with Microsoft, stemming from a previous investment where Microsoft committed over $13 billion to the AI startup. However, this revenue-sharing agreement has not been publicly confirmed by either company.
While OpenAI’s payments to Microsoft are substantial, the relationship is multifaceted. Microsoft also returns about 20% of revenues generated through platforms like Bing and the Azure OpenAI Service to OpenAI. Bing, which utilizes OpenAI’s technology, alongside Azure, offers developers and businesses cloud access to the AI models.
Understanding the Financial Flow
It’s important to note that the payments leaking into the public domain refer to Microsoft’s net revenue share, which excludes amounts that Microsoft pays back to OpenAI from Bing and Azure royalties. This complexity makes it challenging to get a clear picture of the ongoing financial relationship, as Microsoft typically does not disclose specific earnings from these services in its financial statements.
Despite this lack of transparency, the leaked documents provide significant insights into OpenAI’s position in the private market, illustrating both its revenue generation and the expenditures that accompany it.
Revenue Projections
Using the widely reported 20% revenue-sharing figure, we can estimate that OpenAI’s revenue stood at a minimum of $2.5 billion in 2024, with a projected increase to approximately $4.33 billion during the first three quarters of 2025. Previous analysis from The Information suggested that OpenAI’s 2024 revenue could be around $4 billion, with $4.3 billion gathered in the first half of 2025.
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, recently claimed that the company’s revenue exceeds the often-cited $13 billion annually. He anticipates that OpenAI will end the year with an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $20 billion and perhaps reach $100 billion by 2027.
Inference Spending Analysis
Zitron’s analysis indicates that OpenAI may have incurred approximately $3.8 billion in inference costs in 2024. This expenditure increased significantly to around $8.65 billion within the first nine months of 2025. Inference costs pertain to the compute power required to run trained AI models for generating responses.
Historically, OpenAI has relied primarily on Microsoft Azure for its computing needs, although it has also engaged with other providers like CoreWeave, Oracle, AWS, and Google Cloud for additional resources.
Earlier estimates highlighted OpenAI’s overall computing expenditures at approximately $5.6 billion for 2024, with a “cost of revenue” calculated at $2.5 billion for the first half of 2025.
Distinction Between Training and Inference Costs
A source familiar with OpenAI’s finances shared with TechCrunch that while the company’s training expenses are largely non-cash—funded by credits awarded by Microsoft as part of the investment—its inference costs are primarily cash-based.
While these figures don’t provide a complete financial landscape, they do suggest the possibility that OpenAI might be spending more on inference than it is earning in revenue. This revelation could heighten ongoing discussions about the sustainability of valuations within the rapidly evolving AI sector.
Implications for the AI Industry
The implications of OpenAI’s financial situation are critical to the broader discourse surrounding the AI industry. If the AI leader is indeed operating at a loss while running its models, this raises significant questions about the broader market dynamics and the investments being funneled into other companies within the sector.
The discussions about an “AI bubble” have permeated conversations from New York City to Silicon Valley, and OpenAI’s financials certainly add fuel to that fire. Investors and industry experts are left pondering what it might mean for the astronomical valuations seen in the AI arena if even top players like OpenAI are struggling financially.
Conclusion
The financial metrics shared in the leaked documents offer a glimpse into OpenAI’s operational realities, highlighting both the revenue it generates and the costs involved in maintaining its ambitious AI initiatives. As the company continues to grow and potentially approach an IPO, these financial dynamics will remain closely watched by investors, analysts, and competitors alike.
Both OpenAI and Microsoft have chosen not to comment on these revelations. As the conversation surrounding AI’s impact on various sectors continues, stakeholders will need to remain vigilant about the financial health of major players in the market.
For tips or further insights related to the AI industry, feel free to reach out to us. The landscape is continuously evolving, and understanding the underlying financial mechanics is crucial for anyone interested in the future of AI.
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