Amazon’s gains from Anthropic’s IPO will far exceed VCs’ billion-dollar returns.
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Major Investors Set to Benefit from Anthropic’s IPO
The upcoming public offering of Anthropic is poised to deliver significant financial gains for many investors. Notable venture capital firms such as Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital have stakes that are expected to return billions once the company goes public.
Unusual Stake Distribution Among Venture Capitalists
However, Anthropic’s S-1 filing reveals a surprising detail: none of these VC firms holds a 5% stake, the minimum required for inclusion in the principal stockholders’ table. This is atypical for a tech IPO, where lead venture investors usually have substantial double-digit percentages in the startups they support. The irregularity stems from Anthropic’s enormous size—valued at $965 billion in its latest private round, a mere 1% stake is worth almost $10 billion. For instance, Menlo’s estimated position of around $14 billion translates into approximately 1.5% ownership, according to recent Bloomberg figures.
Strategic Partnerships Over Traditional Venture Capital
While VC firms may lack substantial ownership percentages, Anthropic has forged large stakes with strategic partners that are integral to its business operations. Amazon stands out as the most significant financial beneficiary from Anthropic’s IPO.
Amazon initially supported Anthropic in 2023 with a pledge to invest up to $4 billion. Following this, it has invested billions more, mostly structuring these investments as convertible notes—debt that converts into equity upon an IPO or company sale—rather than taking stock outright.
Amazon’s Investment Structure and Valuation
As detailed in the S-1 filing, Amazon held convertible notes with $6.2 billion in principal outstanding as of June 30, representing Anthropic’s entire debt load. As Anthropic’s valuation ballooned through subsequent funding rounds, the shares these notes convert into have significantly increased in value. Indeed, Amazon’s filings indicate that its note holdings were worth approximately $97.9 billion as of June 30.
As the worth of these convertible notes rose, Anthropic found itself obligated to reflect this growing financial liability in its financial records. It recorded the adjustments under “change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs,” showing a total of $72.4 billion for the first half of 2026. Importantly, this is a non-cash charge, meaning no actual cash left Anthropic’s accounts.
According to the S-1, Amazon’s notes could transform into up to 1.84 billion shares. However, there is a limitation that restricts Amazon to just 12% of Anthropic’s “partially diluted” share count, which counts a portion of shares that have yet to be issued, such as stock options. Notably, Amazon has the option to waive this cap. Any notes that cannot immediately convert will remain outstanding and can convert in subsequent quarters, adhering to the same cap.
Continued Investment and Future Revenue Streams
In addition to its notes, Amazon has also invested $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock during the second quarter, according to its quarterly report for the period ending June 30. This investment was made up of $5 billion in each of Anthropic’s last two funding rounds. Combining this with the $8 billion in notes invested from 2023 to 2025 brings Amazon’s total investment in Anthropic to roughly $18 billion.
Beyond potential stock gains, Amazon is set to earn significant revenue from Anthropic as well. The AI firm has committed to spending at least $110 billion on Amazon Web Services (AWS) over the next decade.
Google’s Financial Upside from Anthropic’s Listing
Google, too, is anticipated to gain substantially from Anthropic’s public offering and its collaborative cloud computing agreements. According to court filings referenced by The New York Times, Google held around 14% of Anthropic as of early last year and has injected further investments, including $10 billion in April. However, Google has likely faced dilution from subsequent massive funding rounds, with industry analyst Harrison Rolfes estimating its current stake to be approximately 5.6%. The company has also secured at least $114 billion in cloud service commitments from Anthropic through 2033.
Conclusion: Tech Giants Reap Major Rewards
While venture capitalists poised for lucrative paydays might not have cause for complaint, Anthropic’s S-1 suggests that the ultimate beneficiaries of the IPO will be tech giants like Amazon. Having invested early in what could have been a rival, Amazon now stands to provide Anthropic with a significant portion of the computing power it relies upon.
Nonetheless, the S-1 also cautions that certain cloud service providers, including Amazon, develop competing AI models and may not always align with Anthropic’s interests. This complex landscape will be intriguing to watch as Anthropic prepares to make its public debut.
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